Global M&A activity is poised for a resurgence in 2025. With easing interest rates, ample dry powder, and rising corporate confidence, leading investment banks anticipate a significant uptick in dealmaking across sectors and regions.
J.P. Morgan: Cross-Border Transactions and Strategic Acquisitions to Drive M&A
J.P. Morgan expects strong M&A growth in 2025, building on 2024’s $3.5 trillion global deal volume. A more business-friendly US administration is expected to ease M&A regulations, shorten approval timelines, and create a smoother path for dealmaking. Meanwhile, activist investors will remain active, continuing to push for corporate breakups and restructuring to unlock shareholder value. At the same time, the US remains the most attractive destination for M&A, while the United Kingdom and Japan are key outbound players. Additionally, private equity (PE) firms, armed with high dry powder, will increase exits to return capital to investors. Meanwhile, the technology, healthcare, and infrastructure sectors will see the most deal flow. While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns persist, a more predictable regulatory landscape, strong financing markets, and corporate restructuring trends will support robust M&A activity in 2025.
Barclays: Corporate Divestitures and Sponsor Activity to Propel M&A
Barclays predicts a 15% increase in M&A deal volumes in 2025. The momentum began in 2024, as corporate divestitures gained traction, driven by activist investors demanding sharper operational efficiency. This wave is set to continue, with companies opting for M&A over buybacks as falling interest rates and excess cash reserves create a prime environment for dealmaking. Armed with significant dry powder, PE firms will play a key role. While sell-side activity is expected to rise as firms look to monetize assets, sponsor-led acquisitions will remain robust, sustaining deal momentum. Moreover, the Trump administration's policies on antitrust, tariffs, and foreign trade are expected to impact inbound M&A. However, uncertainties surrounding US trade and antitrust policies will likely introduce some friction. Meanwhile, APAC outbound M&A is expected to remain subdued, with Japan standing out as an exception, poised for more deal activity.
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Morgan Stanley: Easing Regulations and Uncommitted Capital to Boost Deals
Morgan Stanley anticipates a stronger M&A rebound in 2025, driven by a more favorable regulatory environment, financial sponsor exits, and increasing cross-border transactions. With nearly $3 trillion in uncommitted capital, PE firms will accelerate the monetization of the aging portfolios. Meanwhile, they will remain active on the buy-side through take-private deals. Corporations are also expected to pursue strategic acquisitions as regulatory scrutiny eases, enabling mega-deals that were previously delayed. Shareholder activism will remain strong, pushing for corporate separations to unlock value. Cross-border M&A will grow as US companies seek European assets at lower valuations while European firms target US expansion. While uncertainties remain regarding US trade policies, the overall outlook is positive, with deregulation supporting dealmaking momentum.
UBS: Macroeconomic Stability and PE Revival to Accelerate Deals
UBS anticipates a surge in deal activity driven by macroeconomic stability, renewed corporate confidence, and a revival in PE transactions. A business-friendly US policy environment, declining interest rates, and improving stock market conditions are creating the perfect backdrop for companies to pursue strategic acquisitions. Corporate boards are keen to optimize their portfolios through divestitures, while financial sponsors, under growing pressure to return capital, are set to accelerate exits. Technology remains the top sector for M&A, with strong demand for AI, cybersecurity, fintech, and digital infrastructure. Stock markets near record highs will allow for increased use of equity in acquisitions. Also, investment-grade debt markets remain open, supporting both corporate and sponsor-led M&A. While policy uncertainties remain, UBS anticipates a strong dealmaking environment as companies and investors deploy more capital in 2025.
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Goldman Sachs: Improved Macro Clarity to Drive Corporate M&A Growth
Goldman Sachs expects global M&A activity to accelerate in 2025 due to macroeconomic and regulatory clarity. Corporate buyers are shifting their focus from stability to strategic growth amid a push from activist investors for portfolio simplifications. Thus, capability-enhancing acquisitions, particularly in technology, are on the rise, with non-tech firms acquiring tech assets. At the same time, financial sponsors face mounting pressure to deploy capital and generate exits, fueling a rise in sponsor-to-sponsor deals and liquidity events. AI-driven M&A is also gaining momentum, with most activity concentrated in the infrastructure and platform layers, as companies seek to secure competitive advantages in a rapidly evolving market. Cross-regional M&A rebounded in 2024, particularly between the US and Europe, and is expected to keep expanding in 2025. Meanwhile, APAC accounted for 30% of global M&A volumes, with Japan and India leading the activity, fueled by corporate governance reforms and regulatory-friendly policies.
With improving economic fundamentals, easing regulations, and strong corporate confidence, 2025 is shaping up to be a promising year for M&A. As liquidity returns and dealmaking momentum builds, companies and investors alike will be well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
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